Beyond the Nest: Toronto Blue Jays Baseball Hub

Which 3B should the Toronto Blue Jays roll with for the 2024 season, Jeimer Candelario or Matt Chapman? Well, there are upsides and downsides to both players, including offense, defense, and free agency value. Let’s break it down player by player.

Jeimer Candelario (3B/1B – Chicago Cubs)

Candelario, 30, is a switch hitting third baseman who last played with the Chicago Cubs in 2023. Not known too much for his defense at the hot corner, Candelario is a desired piece mainly for his hitting abilities, something that Toronto lacked quite a bit last season. In 2023, Jeimer slashed .251/.336/.471 for a .807 OPS and a 119 OPS+ for the Cubbies. More specifically, he had a .793 OPS against left-handers & an .812 OPS against righties.

As attractive as this is for Jays fans, in my opinion his offensive consistency is more enjoyable for me. Before the All-Star break, Candelario had an .815 OPS, and hit for a .792 OPS post All-Star break. Having a reliable, consistent hitter like this throughout a tough season where every game matters is more important than any hard stat in my opinion.

Defensively, he spent most of his innings at 3B, with a little bit of time split between 1B and DH. In combination with his switch hitting ability, he could be very valuable in games where Vladimir Guerrero Jr. needs a day off or needs to DH. He earned an arbitration salary of $5M for the 2023 season, but as a free agent, he is likely projected to sign for an AAV of about $10-15M. Now let’s take a look at our incumbent third baseman.

Matt Chapman (3B – Toronto Blue Jays)

Chapman, also 30, is coming off a great defensive season, winning the Gold Glove Award for his elite abilities at 3B. However, his offense was not award worthy, quite disappointing in fact. Overall, Chapman slashed .240/.330./.424 for a .754 OPS and 108 OPS+. He also managed to have an .890 OPS against lefties but struggled more with righties with a .722 OPS.

Chapman’s offensive consistency, or lack thereof, is what separates him from Jeimer Candelario. While the former managed to stay consistent throughout the year, Chapman only had two good offensive months, hitting for a 1.120 OPS in April and .908 OPS in July. Post All-Star break, Chapman hit for a paltry .664 OPS, which ultimately led to a weak bottom third of the hitting order for John Schneider and company. Unfortunately for Jays fans, those struggles carried into the Wild Card series with the Minnesota Twins, where he went 1-7 in those two games combined.

In terms of his value in free agency, Chapman is arguably the best 3B on the open market, as teams will fight to secure his glove for their infield. Looking at multiple sources online and from what he brings to the table, I believe the Scott Boras client is looking for at least a $20M AAV for around 5-6 years. The Blue Jays have offered him the Qualifying Offer of $20.25M.

Closing Thoughts

Honestly, when it comes to these third basemen, I don’t want either for more than 2 years. With top prospects such as Orelvis Martinez and Addison Barger ripping through AAA this past year, I only see a short term deal as feasible for either Matt or Jeimer. Realistically, Chapman will sign elsewhere long term, but at least the Jays will get a compensatory draft pick. I’m hoping the front office can offer Candelario a 2 year deal, even if the AAV is on the higher side, as the young guns in Buffalo are on the cusp of breaking through to the big leagues. Jeimer provides a good bat and an average glove, but is more well rounded of a player that fits the Jays needs better in my opinion. Ultimately, we are a playoff contending team and should still try to have a competitive lineup regardless of the choices of these two free agents. Let’s hope Atkins and co. have a few tricks (or money) up their sleeves.