Every baseball fan knows how much of a rock Brandon Woodruff was in the Milwaukee Brewers’ rotation, and despite his consistent performance and success, the club non-tendered him after the 2023 season. Let’s discuss this along with his potential fit in Toronto’s rotation in the near future.
Ups & Downs
Before we get into his potential fit as a Blue Jay, let’s talk about his time in Milwaukee. The 30 year old right hander made his Major League Debut in 2017, and while his ERA and WHIP have been fantastic since the 2019 season, it has come alongside a history of injuries. While most of his injuries until 2022 seemed relatively minor, Brandon suffered a shoulder injury in 2023 and will not pitch at all in the 2024 season due to surgery to fix his right anterior capsule. Nevertheless, he will still be pursued by many contending teams due to his solid top-of-the-rotation capabilities.
Since his debut in 2017, Woodruff has tossed 680.1 innings from the bump, with an elite 3.10 ERA and 1.045 WHIP. In 2021 alone, he made 30 starts and put up astonishing numbers, finishing the season with a 2.56 ERA, and ERA+ of 161, and an All-Star nod alongside 179.1 IP. Despite this, the Brewers still let him go, why is that?
At a glance, it looks like the Brewers are making a huge mistake, which seemed to be the case on social media when the news broke. But looking deeper, it made sense for the Brewers from a financial standpoint. Brandon Woodruff made $10.8 million in his third arbitration year in 2023. In 2024, he is entering his final arbitration year, but the problem is he will never pitch for the team due to his recovering shoulder. The Brewers feel that there is no point paying him nearly $11 million in 2024 just for him to be on the 60-Day IL all season. After all, he will enter free agency next offseason anyways, and the team did not want to burn that kind of cash for 2024 without getting any returns on the field.
So that begs the question for Jays fans, is there a fit for Brandon on the roster for 2024 and beyond?
A Possible Scenario
The Toronto Blue Jays clearly take a lot of pride in their rotation, having one of the best in 2023, headlined by Kevin Gausman and Co. At the moment, the entire rotation is under contract through 2024, BUT Kikuchi’s contract is up after the 2024 season, meaning there is an opening for 2025. The front office now has a decision to make, do they fill Kikuchi’s spot with a free agent signing like Woodruff, or do they call up Ricky Tiedemann? Tiedemann will more than likely start 2024 in AAA Buffalo, and if he continues to pitch like he has been lately, there will be a lot of pressure on the front office to call him up for 2025.
The thing is, Yusei Kikuchi is not the only piece of the puzzle, as a matter of fact he may not even be a part of it. Enter Alek Manoah. Manoah burst into the scene with amazing seasons in 2021 and 2022, but struggled mightily in 2023, posting an ERA of 5.87. Whether his problems are physical or mental, at the moment he is projected to be the Jays’ fifth starter come 2024, as they have little starting depth in their system. The Jays will likely have him start the season in the rotation, but if he continues to struggle and Tiedemann continues to shine, we may see a Manoah demotion and Ricky promotion. Maybe even a Manoah trade.
Should the Blue Jays sign Woodruff to a multiyear deal, their rotation in 2025 would look like:
- Kevin Gausman
- Brandon Woodruff
- Jose Berrios
- Chris Bassitt
- Alek Manoah OR Ricky Tiedemann
To be honest, an Alek Manoah trade will be more than likely if Tiedemann is ready by 2025 Opening Day, as the Jays will also have more team control over Ricky than Alek. While Alek has a tough road ahead of him in 2024, he may still be moved even if he has a decent season.
Closing Thoughts
Do I personally want Brandon Woodruff in the Blue Jays’ rotation come 2025 Opening Day, heck yeah I do! But he may not be financially feasible for Toronto given that many large market teams will be bidding for his services in the coming days and weeks. With Bo Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero Jr in their final arbitration years, I can’t see anything longer than a 2 or 3 year deal for Woodruff, unless Rogers suddenly chooses to have a more ‘open wallet’ policy.
At the end of the day, the Blue Jays have more pressing areas of the team to address before starting pitching, especially our offensive holes. With figures like Bellinger and Ohtani in the open market, I am excited to see who the Blue Jays manage to scoop up to hopefully have a more successful 2024 campaign. Let me know your thoughts down below!
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